Sunday, February 14, 2016

RESULTS: Cable Ratings Predictions: February 6 -8, 2016

I predicted the ratings for the shows FROM THE BOTTOM UP (Centric, 2/6), BEOWULF (2/6), BLACK SAILS (Starz, 2/6), SHAMELESS (Showtime, 2/7), BILLIONS (Showtime, 2/7), FULL FRONTAL WITH SAMANTHA BEE (TBS, 2/8), and LOVE & HIP HOP (VH1, 2/8). Here are the results of my predictions:

My predictions for the ratings for FULL FRONTAL, SHAMELESS, and FROM THE BOTTOM UP were right on the money. For SHAMELESS, I expected somewhere between 1.13M and 1.21M viewers based on data from the previous years, and the show ended up bringing in 1.16M, which was right in the range. For FULL FRONTAL WITH SAMANTHA BEE, my prediction for the cumulative viewers was between 2M and 2.2M, and the actual viewership was 2.16M; solidly in the range. However, I thought that the show would bring in 1M viewers on TBS, but it was actually much lower (629,000), while the Adult Swim airing led with 986,000. On Centric, my first prediction for FROM THE BOTTOM UP  (90K - 100K) ended up being the correct one as the show actually brought in 99,000 viewers.

My predictions were was a bit off for BILLIONS, and LOVE & HIP HOP. I was 4% off for LOVE & HIP HOP: the actual viewership was 2.6M, which was lower than my 2.7M prediction. I was 6% off for BILLIONS, which actually brought in 851,000, down 45K compared to my 896,000 prediction (though I did emphasize that it would be on the low side). I grossly underestimated my BEOWULF prediction; the show actually had 177,000 viewers (and I said ~100K). Finally, BLACK SAILS, on Starz, hit an unexpected series-low 501,000 viewers (down 34% from the 670K prediction).


Show TitleDatePrediction
(000)
Actual
(000)
% Off
From the Bottom Up2/6/1590K-100K or 115K - 120K99K16%
Beowulf2/6/1595K - 100K177K77%
Black Sails2/6/15670K - 695K501K34%
Shameless2/7/151.13M - 1.21M1.16M
Billions2/7/15896K - 960K851K6%
Full Frontal2/8/152.00M - 2.20M2.16M
Love & Hip Hop2/8/152.70M - 2.75M2.60M4%

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